Observing the conduct of the Israeli regime at this moment, it would seem as if Israel is attempting to bring the ‘Western super powers’, into a war with not only Syria but seemingly Iran and Russia too. All the allegations and rhetoric surrounding the current scenario would suggest that Israel is completely drunk on power and acting as a state in desperation.
Will Israel actually look to spark a 3rd World War?
Well first we have to look at it from an Israeli point of view.
The Israeli state, in rhetoric, like to look strong. Historically Israel have held onto something they call their “deterrence capacity”, which is their ability to frighten their neighbors through the might of their military. In 2006 this deterrence capacity was severely damaged, as Hezbollah inflicted a tremendous military defeat of Israel, in order to restore their image of the all amazing superior military force, the Israeli government decided to inflict three defeats upon Gaza. After desimating Gaza, killing huge sums of civilians and crushing infrastructure - which Hamas had no capability of stopping - Israel felt that this military might had somewhat been restored.
Lately, with the downing of an Israeli F-16, earlier this year, by Syrian air defense systems and the repelling of a 4 hour assault upon Syria afterwards, Israel have been somewhat reminded of where they are compared to their neighbors.
At this point Israel are - to anyone who has in depth knowledge of the region - not in a position to win a war against either Lebanese resistance, nor Syria.
It would be an absolute mistake for the Israeli state to launch an all out war into either Syria or Lebanon and a third world war would at this point put Israel in a very bad situation.
Wether Israel likes it/will admit it, or not, it would be national suicide for it actually be interested in a huge regional war.
So what are Israel perhaps considering?
Right now, Israel is in heaven in terms of its perceived position of dominance. The regime has the US, EU and UK seemingly ready to engage even Russia at this point, following the Israeli airstrikes upon Syrian airbase in Homs. The biggest mistake now, would be to give up this position of perceived dominance and thats why a military pursuit on a target which cannot defend itself is vital.
It is my suspicion that Israel is looking for a military assault upon Gaza, the following points explain why:
Five reasons Israel possibly want a war on Gaza:
Media Image (PR)
Lately the image of Israel when it comes to their treatment of the Palestinians in Gaza, has been extremely negative, this being due to Israel’s executions of the following 31 unarmed Palestinian demonstrators, taking part in a 6 week non-violent demonstration labeled the ‘Great Return March’.
NAMES OF THE MARTYRS:
- Wahid Nasrallah Abu Sammour
- Mohammad Kamal Najjar
- Mohammad Naim Abu Amro
- Amin Mansour Abu Moammar
- Ibrahim Abu Sha’ar
- Abdul-Fattah Bahjat Abdul-Nabi
- Mahmoud Sa’adi Rohmi
- Sari Waleed Abu Odah
- Hamdan Ismael Abu Amsha
- Jihad Ahmad Freina
- Ahmad Ibrahim Ashour Odah
- Abdul-Qader Merdhi al-Hawajri
- Jihad Zoheir Abu Jamous
- Mosab Zohair Salloul
- Bader Faeq as-Sabagh
- Naji Abdullah Abu Hjeir
- Moahmmed AlRabay'a
- Fares Alreqeb
- Ahmad Arafa
- shadi AlKashif
- Mujahed ALKhudary
- Majdi Ramadan Shabat
- Alaa Yahya Al Zamili
- Thaer Mohammed Rabaa
- Hussein Mohammed Madi
- Osama Khamis Qudaih
- Ibrahim Al-'Er
- Sadeqi Abu Attiwi
- Mohammed Saeed Saleh
- Yasir Murtaja
- Hamza Abd Alal.
If Israel is able to provoke Hamas into engaging in an armed conflict, Israel’s justifications for its actions would hold up a lot better.
Historically the Israeli regime has nationalized its weapons manufacturers, IMI being one of the most prominent of these, however, recently it has been confirmed that Israel has privatized IMI and has centralized most of its weapons manufacturers to ‘Elbit Systems’, a private Israeli arms manufacturer.
In short, because of their privatization of their weapons manufacturing, the priority will be more so on making money for Elbit Systems and the reason Israel is able to sell weapons to more than 150 different countries, is its proof that its weapons work, proof of which comes from Gaza operations. Another aspect to this, is that Israel not only privatized, but centralized the weapons manufacturers, meaning that competition has diminished. When there is no competition in the market place, the prices of the weapons go up and Israel most likely wants to use the weapons, also saving as much money as possible in the process.
The ongoing divisions between the PA and Fatah
The President of the Palestinian Authority (PA), Mahmoud Abbas, has announced that new sanction are to be placed upon Gaza, as a response to what it called a “Hamas attempted assassination of Rami Hamdallah (PA Prime Minister). Mahmoud Abbas is currently out to get Hamas and would most likely distance the PA from Hamas and rip up the ‘unity deal’ between both parties, signed last September (2017), if Hamas were engaged in a military confrontation with Israel. Historically the PA have backed off from Hamas in their times of military confrontation with Israel.
Especially considering the current situation they have placed themselves in, Israel would improve greatly its standing as a military force not to be messed with, if it was to once again crush a helpless Gaza. There is no doubt that the Israeli population receive a huge boost in their confidence when an attack on Gaza occurs.
Prime Minister Corruption investigation
The final point, is that as an Israeli Prime Minister, if you seek to win the hearts of your population, bombing Gaza is your best bet. Benjamin Netanyahu is the no.1 choice for his role in the state, despite his ongoing corruption scandal, but non-the-less this is not a good luck and does see a small backlash. If Israel was to choose to invade Gaza, inflicting another large scale massacre, it is certain that Netanyahu would be in Israeli Prime Minster heaven.
So is it a certainty that Israel is considering Gaza over Syria, as the next target? Well, from a safe and strategic point of view, to the regime, it would seem that way.