Analysts of the Zagreb Economics Institute (EIZ) expect that the real GDP growth in Croatia in the second quarter of 2017 reached 2.6 percent compared to the previous year.
According to sources, all components of the CEIZ index have risen on an annual basis, particularly the number of tourist arrivals which increased by 33.4 percent by June. Measured on a yearly basis, CEIZ’s value suggested an acceleration of economic activity, albeit at lower rates than 2016.
“Based on the trend of the CEIZ index, we expect the real GDP growth rate to reach 2.6% in the second quarter of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016, which is a slight acceleration compared to the first three months of the year, when GDP grew at a rate of 2.5%” reported the EIZ.
For instance, in June 2017 “the CEIZ index dropped by 0.4 points in comparison to June 2016, which is the smallest annual decrease in the value of the index in 2017. After the strong drop in CEIZ value in April, which was mostly a consequence of a substantial fall of industry and lower VAT revenues, the index increased cumulatively by 0.6 points in May and June, which means that, compared to the first quarter, the CEIZ index increased in the second quarter, implying an improvement in the business cycle.” Announced EIZ.
According to the source, the value of the CEIZ index changes at the same time as the economic cycle, since it is a coincidental economic indicator developed by EIZ with the aim of providing timely information on the current business cycle. It is considered as a monthly complex business cycle indicator and provides a monthly estimate of the status of the economy unlike the quarterly GDP data.
It is worth noting that since the CEIZ index is available one to three months before the publication of the data on the quarterly GDP, policy makers are able to keep track of economic trends in a suitable manner.